Mesoscale Meteorology
Severe Convection II: Mesoscale Convective Systems
3.2 Evolution
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Once formed, squall lines often display a characteristic life cycle, starting as a narrow band of intense convective cells and evolving to a broader, weaker system over time. However, the time over which this evolution takes place and the specific structures that develop within the squall line depend strongly on the magnitude of the low-level vertical wind shear. In general, stronger shear environments promote longer-lived and more severe weather producing systems.
During the evolution of a weakly-to-moderately sheared squall line, a system is composed of mostly independent convective cells. The line often appears quite narrow, with the surface cold pool generally confined to a small region around the convective cells. As the squall line matures, it is typically characterized by a fairly solid line of strong leading edge convective cells. An extensive surface cold pool extends rearward from the leading edge in association with the expanding region of stratiform precipitation. A narrow region of very light precipitation, referred to as a weak echo channel or transition zone, is often observed between the leading line convection and the stratiform precipitation region. During the dissipating stage of the squall line the leading convection weakens as the surface cold pool surges ahead of the system. Although the convective cells have weakened, the stratiform precipitation region may last for several hours.
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In strongly sheared environments, the evolution of a squall line begins with an initially narrow line of strong convective cells, with light precipitation often extending downshear of the convective cores. Some of the cells may be supercells. As the system matures, the narrow line of strong cells persists, with bow-shaped segments of cells also beginning to develop. Lighter precipitation begins to extend somewhat rearward (upshear), but to a lesser extent than in weaker shears. In the dissipating stages, the leading cells weaken and become more scattered and the region of lighter precipitation extends even farther rearward (upshear).
Note: While these conceptual models of squall line evolution are very useful, the real world is often more complicated. Regardless of the characteristic strength of the vertical shear whenever an MCS system cold pool moves away from the original decaying cells, a new line of cells may be triggered even as the cold pool weakens. This is especially likely if the decaying system and leading cold pool encounter a more favorable environment. When this occurs, the system may again strengthen, looking more like the mature stage, and continue its evolution as before. This process has been observed to considerably extend the lifetimes of convective systems.
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As a squall line matures, it typically develops rotation at each end. The development of these line-end vortices is most apparent and significant for relatively short lines (less than 200 km, 110 n mi, in length). As we’ll discuss later, line-end vortices in close proximity to each other in bow echoes are given the special name bookend vortices. This development is schematically presented here for a 150 kilometer (80 n mi) long squall line evolving in an environment characterized by weak-to-moderate low-level shear.
Line-end vortices usually develop during the early to mature stages or between two to four hours into the lifetime of the convective system, just behind the zone of most active convection. When line-end vortices first develop, the cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices are often of nearly equal strength, promoting a symmetric, bowed shape in the precipitation field. However, if the vortices last for more than two to three hours (i.e., beyond four to seven hours into the lifetime of the system), the northern, cyclonic vortex tends to become stronger and larger than the southern, anticyclonic vortex. As this occurs, the convective system becomes asymmetric, with most of the stratiform precipitation region found behind the northern end of the system, and the strongest leading-line convective cells found near the southern end. In weak-to-moderate shear environments, the northern line-end vortex is typically observed to move rearward with time.
The symmetric-to-asymmetric evolution of the line-end vortices described for weak-to-moderate shear environments also occurs in stronger shear environments. Although as shown here, when the shear is moderate to strong, the vortices tend to remain closer to the leading-edge convection. In addition, smaller-scale bow-shaped systems within the larger system are more apt to develop in stronger shear, with each subsystem also displaying a symmetric-to-asymmetric evolution. These systems observed on radar give the line echo wave pattern, or LEWP signature especially well known for producing long swaths of damaging surface winds. In moderate-to-strong shear environments, the northern line-end vortex has been observed to be a favored region for especially intense straight-line surface winds. This is also true with the northern circulation portion of any given individual embedded bowing segment. These regions should be monitored closely.
The dominant cyclonic vortex can last well beyond the lifetime of the originating convective system and is often referred to as a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). In some cases, MCVs have been documented to last for several days, helping to trigger subsequent convective outbreaks. MCVs are also commonly referred to as MVCs, Mesoscale Vorticity Centers. These topics will be discussed further in the MCC section.
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Based on the system structure and the evolution of the line-end vortices of the mature-stage squall line in the reflectivity loop, what strength low-level shear would you expect to be present?
Moderate shear is the best answer.
Because the dominant northern line-end vortex moves quickly rearward behind the leading edge convection during this 90-minute loop, we should suspect the shear is in the weak-to-moderate range. However, if the shear were truly weak, we would not expect to see convection this strong at the same time as a well-developed line-end vortex. If the shear were very strong, the vortex should remain closely tied to the leading line convection and we would not expect to observe an enhanced trailing stratiform precipitation region, given that this squall line is in its mature stage. Data shows that in fact, this system occurred in a low-end moderate-shear environment. We will discuss quantifying shear values later in this module.
The surface pressure field during a squall line’s mature phase reveals a pre-squall mesolow ahead of the system, a mesohigh collocated with the surface cold pool, and sometimes a wake low at the back edge of the stratiform precipitation.
The fields are similar whether the low-level wind shear is weak or strong, but surface pressure gradients, and thus often the strength of the surface winds, are usually stronger in stronger-shear environments.
As a squall line becomes asymmetric, the surface pressure field also becomes distorted. Both the cold pool mesohigh and the trailing wake low are also shifted northward.
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(Click the above image for animation, or see still series below:)
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This animation shows the idealized evolution of a typical squall line in a vertical cross section with hypothetical radar echoes and cloud. Major system updrafts and downdrafts are also shown. Note the repeated pulsing of new cells along the leading edge of the system gust front with time and then the movement of the cells rearward with time, which contributes to the growth of the trailing stratiform precipitation. The gust front in this depiction outruns the system, which is depicted in a storm-relative reference frame.